Funda: izimpawu esizilandelayo, nokuthi i-Bitcoin isebenza kanjani

Inkomba Ejwayelekile

I-General Index ihlanganisa izinkomba zethu eziyisishiyagalolunye zibe yisikolo esisodwa phakathi kuka −1 no +1. Inkomba ngayinye ithola isikolo ethebhini yayo ku-Master File yethu, iphindaphindwe ngesisindo sayo (izisindo zihlangene zenza u-100%), bese imiphumela iyahlanganiswa. Ikhadi Lesinqumo liguqula leso sikolo sibe umusho owodwa olula othi intengo ikuphi uma iqhathaniswa nomkhuba wayo — kusukela ekubeni phansi kakhulu kwenani layo kuya ekubeni phezulu kakhulu — futhi libonisa okuyiqhubayo.

Ukuhlola kwethu kwedatha yangaphambili (2017–2026) akutholanga ukuxhumana okuthembekile phakathi kwale nkomba nenzuzo yesikhathi esizayo, ngakho yifunde njengencazelo yesimo samanje, hhayi njengesibikezelo.

I-Power Law

Imodeli ye-Power Law ithatha intengo ye-Bitcoin njengomsebenzi weminyaka yayo: inani elifanele = 1.0117 × 10⁻¹⁷ × d^5.82, lapho u-d eyinani lezinsuku kusukela kubhulokhi yokuqala (3 Januwari 2009). Esikalini se-log idweba ijika elikhuphuka kancane, elinesisekelo ku-0.42 × inani elifanele kanye nebhande eliphezulu ku-3 × inani elifanele.

Eduze nesisekelo yilapho ngokomlando abantu baqoqa khona; eduze nebhande eliphezulu yilapho imijikelezo edlule yashisa ngokweqile. Iwukulungiswa kwamanani adlule: ichaza lapho intengo idayiswe khona, hhayi lapho okufanele iye khona.

Ukwesaba & Ukuhaha

Inkomba Yokwesaba Nokuhaha ifingqa umuzwa wemakethe iwubeke inombolo eyodwa kusukela ku-0 (ukwesaba okukhulu) kuya ku-100 (ukuhaha okukhulu). Ukwesaba okukhulu kungase kubonise amathuba okuthenga, kuyilapho ukuhaha okukhulu kuvame ukuxwayisa ukuthi ukulungiswa kungase kube seduze. Kuyisilinganiso somuzwa esiphambene, esifundwa kahle kanye nentengo nomkhuba.

Izilinganiso Ezinyakazayo

Isilinganiso esinyakazayo sishelela ukuguquguquka kwentengo kwansuku zonke ngokuthatha isilinganiso sentengo yokuvala ezinsukwini eziningi. Uma isilinganiso sezinsuku ezingu-50 singaphezu kwesezinsuku ezingu-200 umkhuba uvame ukuba phezulu; uma sehlela ngaphansi ("death cross") sithathwa njengesiphansi. Sikusiza ukubona umkhuba oyisisekelo esikhundleni sokusabela kuwo wonke umnyakazo wansuku zonke.

Ukugeleza kwe-ETF

Ama-ETF e-Bitcoin abenza abatshalizimali abavamile bakwazi ukuthenga i-Bitcoin ngemakethe yamasheya. Imali engenayo nsuku zonke ibonisa isidingo esisha sezikhungo esingasekela intengo; ukuphuma kwemali eningi kungabonisa intshisekelo encishayo. Ukugeleza okuqhubekayo ohlangothini olulodwa kunencazelo enkulu kunosuku olulodwa.

I-RSI Yenyanga

Isilinganiso esifanayo samandla esisuka ku-0 kuya ku-100 njenge-RSI yezinsuku eziyi-14, kodwa sibalwa ngamanani okuvala anyanga zonke ezinyangeni eziyi-14 ezedlule, ngakho sihamba kancane futhi sihlunga umsindo wansuku zonke. Amazinga angaphezu kuka-70 abonise izikhathi zokushisa ngokweqile zemijikelezo edlule; angaphansi kuka-30, izikhathi zokukhathala okukhulu.

Ibha entsha yenyanga yakheka izikhathi eziyi-12 kuphela ngonyaka, ngakho amazinga eqile ayivelakancane — ngalinye libalulekile, kodwa mambalwa okungafundwa kuwo.

Ukunikezelwa kwe-Stablecoin

Ama-stablecoin afana ne-USDT ne-USDC ngamathokheni axhunywe kudola asetshenziswa njengemali ngaphakathi kwe-crypto. Ukunikezelwa okukhulayo kusho amandla okuthenga amaningi alungele ukungena ku-Bitcoin, kuyilapho ukunikezelwa okuncishayo kusho ukuthi i-likhwidithi iyaphuma emakethe.

Ukuqedwa Kwezikhundla

Abahwebi ababoleka imali ukuze babheke i-Bitcoin (i-leverage) bavalelwa izikhundla ngempoqo — baqedwe — uma intengo ihamba ibanga elanele ibhekene nabo. Leli khadi libonisa inani lansuku zonke lamadola alokhu kuvalwa ngempoqo kuma-futures e-BTC: ukuqedwa kwama-long lapho ukwehla kususa abathengi abane-leverage, ukuqedwa kwama-short lapho ukukhuphuka kususa abathengisi abane-leverage.

Ukususwa okukhulu kakhulu ohlangothini olulodwa kuvame ukubonisa ukukhathala kwesikhashana kwalokho kunyakaza. Izinkundla zishicilela ingxenye kuphela yokuqedwa kwazo, ngakho qhathanisa izinsuku phakathi kwazo kunokuba ufunde izibalo njengezinembile.

RSI Ichaziwe

I-RSI (Inkomba Yamandla Aqhathanisayo) ilinganisa amandla entengo yakamuva esikalini sika-0 kuya ku-100. Ngaphezu kuka-70 kubonisa ukuthengwa ngokweqile (ukwehla kungenzeka kakhulu); ngaphansi kuka-30 kubonisa ukuthengiswa ngokweqile (ukuqhasha kungenzeka kakhulu). Sibheka i-RSI yezinsuku ezingu-14 njengesilinganiso samandla esikhashana — umongo osizayo, hhayi isiqiniseko.

Incwadi Yemiyalelo

Uhlu oluphilayo lwemiyalelo yokuthenga (ama-bids) neyokuthengisa (ama-asks) elindile ku-Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp ne-Bitfinex, kuhlanganisiwe. I-spread yigebe phakathi kwesicelo esingcono sokuthenga nesokuthengisa; ibhalansi ibonisa uhlangothi olunevolumu enkulu eduze kwentengo.

Imiyalelo emikhulu elindile ("izindonga") ingabambezela intengo, kodwa ingasuswa noma ikhanselwe nganoma yisiphi isikhathi, ngakho ibonisa inhloso, hhayi isibophezelo.

I-Heatmap Yokuqedwa

Lapho izikhundla ezine-leverage bezizovalwa ngempoqo uma intengo ifika lapho. Amabhande akhanyayo ngaphansi kwentengo yamanje ngamaqoqo okuqedwa kwama-long; lawo angaphezulu ngawama-short. Intengo ivame ukudonseleka emabhandeni aminyene, ngoba ukuqedwa kuyimiyalelo inkundla okumele iyenze.

Lokhu kuyisilinganiso semodeli eyakhiwe ngomlando wentengo ye-BTC, i-open interest kanye namazinga e-funding — ayikho inkundla eshicilela lapho izikhundla zikhona ngempela — ngakho funda amabhande njengezindawo okufanele ziqashelwe, hhayi njengezinhloso zentengo.

I-MVRV

I-MVRV iqhathanisa inani lemakethe le-Bitcoin (intengo × izinhlamvu ezisejikelezweni) nenani layo elifeziwe — lokho okwabizwa yinhlamvu ngayinye ngesikhathi igcina ukunyakaziswa ku-blockchain, isilinganiso esilinganiselwayo sezindleko ezimaphakathi zenethiwekhi. Cishe ku-1.0 umnikazi ojwayelekile akanayo inzuzo noma ukulahlekelwa; ngaphansi kuka-1.0 iningi lilahlekelwa, okuhambisana nezingxenye eziphansi zemijikelezo edlule; ngaphezu kuka-3.7 cishe inzuzo inwetshwe kakhulu, okuhambisana neziqongo ezedlule.

Ibonisa ukuthi ingakanani inzuzo esephepheni esemakethe, hhayi ukuthi izothathwa nini.

1. Iyini i-Bitcoin Imali yedijithali. Akukho CEO.

I-Bitcoin yimali yedijithali ongayithumela kunoma ngubani, noma kuphi, nganoma yisiphi isikhathi — ngaphandle kwebhange noma inkampani ephethe. Akukho CEO, akukho hhovisi elikhulu, futhi akekho ongavimba imali yakho; isebenza kunethiwekhi yomhlaba wonke yamavolontiya alandela yonke imithetho efanayo evulekile.

Ukunikezelwa kuphelele kunomkhawulo wezinhlamvu zemali eziyizigidi ezingu-21, ngakho ngokungafani nezimali zezwe ayinakwenziwa noma nini. Lokhu kungatholakali okumisiwe nokubikezelekayo yikhona okwenza abantu bayibize ngokuthi "igolide ledijithali".

2. I-Blockchain Incwadi yomphakathi, ekopishwe kuwo wonke umhlaba.

I-blockchain yincwadi yomphakathi ye-Bitcoin: uhlu oluphelele lwawo wonke umsebenzi owake wenziwa, oluhlanganiswe "ezigabeni" ezixhunywe ngokulandelana. Izinkulungwane zamakhompiyutha emhlabeni wonke ngakunye igcina ikhophi ephelele — cishe ama-700 GB futhi iyakhula — ngakho ayikho idatha eyodwa engagqekezwa noma evalwe.

Njengoba wonke umuntu ephethe ikhophi efanayo futhi eyihlola ngemithetho efanayo, inethiwekhi iyavumelana ngokuthi ngubani ophethe ini ngaphandle kokuthi noma ubani athembele kumuntu ophakathi.

3. Ukumbiwa / PoW Amandla → ukuphepha.

Ukumbiwa yindlela imisebenzi emisha eqinisekiswa ngayo nezinhlamvu zemali ezintsha zidalwa ngayo. Abambi basebenzisa amakhompiyutha anamandla aqhudelana ukuxazulula iphazili enzima yezibalo ebizwa nge-Proof of Work (PoW); ophumelelayo wengeza isigaba esilandelayo futhi athole umvuzo.

Wonke lowo gesi yiwo umgomo: wenza ukubhala kabusha umlando we-Bitcoin kubize kakhulu ngokwedlulele. Ngamanye amazwi, amandla omhlaba wangempela aguqulwa ngokuqondile abe ukuphepha kwenethiwekhi.

4. Izinga le-Hash Uhlelo lokuzivikela lwe-Bitcoin.

Izinga le-hash lilinganisa amandla ekhompiyutha ephelele abambi abawakhomba kunethiwekhi — okwamanje cishe ama-920 EH/s, okungukuthi imizamo eyi-quintillion engama-920 ngomzuzwana ngamunye. Cabanga ngakho njengohlelo lokuzivikela lwe-Bitcoin.

Lapho izinga le-hash liphezulu, yilapho umhlaseli ezodinga amandla nezingxenyekazi eziningi ukunqoba inethiwekhi. Ngakho izinga le-hash elikhuphukayo ngokuvamile lisho ukuthi inethiwekhi iya iqina futhi kunzima ukuyihlasela.

5. Ubunzima I-thermostat ezilungisayo.

Ubunzima yi-thermostat ye-Bitcoin ezilungisayo. Cishe njalo emasontweni amabili inethiwekhi ilungisa ngokuzenzakalelayo ukuthi iphazili yokumba inzima kangakanani, ukuze izigaba ezintsha ziqhubeke zifika cishe njalo ngemizuzu eyi-10 kungakhathaliseki ukuthi bangaki abambi abajoynayo noma abahambayo.

Abambi abaningi bakhuphula ubunzima; abambi abambalwa babehlisa. Lokhu kugcina uhlelo lokukhishwa kwezinhlamvu zemali luzinzile futhi lubikezeleka kungakhathaliseki ukuthi mangaki amandla okumba aku-inthanethi.

6. I-Halving Ukunciphisa ukunikezelwa njalo ~iminyaka 4.

Cishe njalo eminyakeni emine — njalo ezigabeni ezingu-210,000 — umvuzo abambi abawutholayo ngesigaba ngasinye unqunywa phakathi. Lo mcimbi ubizwa nge-halving.

Waqala ku-50 BTC ngesigaba futhi okwamanje ungu-3.125 BTC. I-halving ngayinye inciphisa kancane kancane ukunikezelwa kwezinhlamvu ezintsha kuze kuthi ukukhishwa ekugcineni kufike kuziro, kuphoqelela ukungatholakali kwe-Bitcoin ngohlelo olumisiwe nolusobala wonke umuntu angalubona kusenesikhathi.

7. Umkhawulo wa-21M Ukungatholakali okuhleliwe.

Ikhodi ye-Bitcoin ivumela inani eliphezulu lezinhlamvu zemali eziyizigidi ezingu-21 — phakade. Cishe u-95% usuvele umbiwe, futhi okusele kuzophuma kancane kuze kube cishe ngonyaka wezi-2140, ngenxa yama-halving aphindaphindiwe.

Lokhu kungatholakali okuhleliwe kuyinhliziyo yempikiswano ye-Bitcoin "yegolide ledijithali": akukho hulumeni, inkampani, noma umthuthukisi onganquma nje ukwenza okwengeziwe.

8. Izikhiye Namanodi Ukuzigcinela. Akukho bhange.

Ukuba ne-Bitcoin kusho ukuphatha ukhiye oyimfihlo — ikhodi eyimfihlo efakazela ukuthi izinhlamvu zemali ngezakho. Inkulumo ethi "uma ungenazo izikhiye zakho, awunazo izinhlamvu zakho" iqukethe lo mqondo: ngokuzigcinela wena ulawula imali yakho ngokuqondile, ngaphandle kwebhange elingakuvalela ngaphandle.

Amanodi angamakhompiyutha cishe angu-18,000 asebenzisa isofthiwe ye-Bitcoin futhi ehlola ngokuzimela yonke imithetho nawo wonke umsebenzi. Ndawonye agcina inethiwekhi ithembekile, ingenakuphathwa muntu oyedwa, futhi ingalawuleki ngehlangothi elilodwa.

Ngomhla zingama-31 kuOkthoba 2008, uSatoshi Nakamoto washicilela "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System" — amakhasi ayisishiyagalolunye achaza ukuthi abantu bangakhokhelana kanjani ku-inthanethi ngaphandle kwebhange phakathi. Inkinga eyixazululayo ukusetshenziswa kabili: ukuvimba umuntu ukuthi asebenzise uhlamvu lwemali yedijithali olufanayo kabili, ngaphandle kokwethemba igunya elimaphakathi ukugcina amarekhodi.

Impendulo: wonke umsebenzi wokuthengiselana usakazwa kunethiwekhi evulekile, uqoqwe emabhulokhini futhi ufakwe isikhathi ochungechungeni oluvikelwe yi-proof-of-work. Ukubhala kabusha umlando kungadinga ukwenza kabusha wonke lowo msebenzi ngokushesha kunenethiwekhi ethembekile, okuba cishe akunakwenzeka njengoba amabhulokhi enqwabelana. Abavukuzi abenza lowo msebenzi baklonyeliswa ngezinhlamvu ezintsha nezimali zokuthengiselana, futhi uchungechunge olude kakhulu lwamukelwa njengerekhodi lalokho okwenzekile.

Limfushane futhi liyafundeka — isifinyezo nezigaba ezimbili zokuqala sezichaza wonke umqondo.

Isifinyezo, ngamazwi kaSatoshi (ngesiNgisi)

A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution. Digital signatures provide part of the solution, but the main benefits are lost if a trusted third party is still required to prevent double-spending. We propose a solution to the double-spending problem using a peer-to-peer network. The network timestamps transactions by hashing them into an ongoing chain of hash-based proof-of-work, forming a record that cannot be changed without redoing the proof-of-work. The longest chain not only serves as proof of the sequence of events witnessed, but proof that it came from the largest pool of CPU power. As long as a majority of CPU power is controlled by nodes that are not cooperating to attack the network, they'll generate the longest chain and outpace attackers. The network itself requires minimal structure. Messages are broadcast on a best effort basis, and nodes can leave and rejoin the network at will, accepting the longest proof-of-work chain as proof of what happened while they were gone.

Funda okwangempela: Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System (PDF, amakhasi ayi-9, ngesiNgisi)

I-Bitcoin Signal Processing iguqula idatha yemakethe enomsindo ibe yiziphetho ezicacile ngolimi olulula. Esikhundleni samashadi adidayo, uthola isifinyezo esifushane sezimpawu ezibalulekile — i-RSI, izilinganiso ezinyakazayo, umuzwa, ukugeleza kwe-ETF, ne-likhwidithi ye-stablecoin — nokuthi kusho ukuthini kubatshalizimali abavamile.

Umgomo wethu ulula: ukukusiza uqonde okwenzekayo emhlabeni we-Bitcoin ngaphandle kwamagama anzima noma umsindo.

Ithimba

Babimbi C. Bobo (Alias) — Umsunguli · Umhlaziyi Omkhulu. Umhlaziyi onolwazi lomsebenzi oluthe xaxa eminyakeni emi-5 embonini yomshwalense, onemfundo yezibalo, izibalo ezijulile, ezomnotho kanye nesayensi ye-actuarial. Umfundi wempilo nomfundi kaNkulunkulu.